Page 25 of Hard to Get

“Right,” I say slowly. “So I’m not responsible for the whole team losing.”

She grins. “No. You’re not. All those variables outside your control are “luck”.”

“Like, how others are playing. Like a hot goaltender.”

“Exactly. Even players on your own team, like I said.”

I nod. It seems obvious. But saying I can’t control the outcome but I can control the odds… I haven’t thought about it that way before.

“You can affect the probabilities but you can’t control fate.”

My mind abandons hockey momentarily to consider the coincidences of running into Stella over and over. Obviously, I don’t have control over her, but I can affect the probabilities.

And yeah, same with hockey.

“Hockey is the sport with the greatest amount of luck involved in wins and losses,” Stella says. “Of the big five team sports.”

I sit back in my chair. “No shit.”

“There’s a mathematical approach known as true score theory that assesses how much luck contributes to a team’s overall success.”

“Stop. I’m getting turned on by your brain.”

She chokes on a laugh. “Oh my God. That’s the first time I’ve ever heard that.”

I grin. “I’m probably the only guy stupid enough to tell you that.”

Our eye contract stretches into a long moment.

“Anyway,” Stella says, “they estimated that luck contributes about 53 percent to a hockey team’s season record.”

“That much, huh? But I guess it makes sense. There’s a lot of random shit that happens on the ice, right? Like the puck gets deflected by a skate or a stick, or takes a weird bounce on the ice. But… that’s what makes the game exciting.”

She nods enthusiastically. “Yes! Exactly. But just because luck plays such a big role, that doesn’t mean there’s no point in trying.”

“Right. Right.” I let that sink in. “Absolutely. I can increase the odds, though. That’s kind of what I was thinking. I need to focus on what I can control and that’ll improve the team’s odds of winning.”

“And one way to do that is to look at the stats.”

She commented that before and I basically brushed it off. But listening to her talk about this stuff might be convincing me. “So you can look at my stats and tell me what I need to do better.”

“Yes.”

Her confidence is hot.

“But so can your coach,” she adds. “He has all those stats. What does he tell you?”

“Our coach is new,” I remind her. “And last year, our coach didn’t really talk to me about that. He was getting pretty frustrated with the whole team, I think.”

“Right, new coach. I’m sure he’ll be looking at all the stats and analysis for all of you to figure out what needs to change.”

I nod. Of course he will. But now I’m suddenly burning with a new desire to be better. This season has to be better.

I lean forward. “Tell me more about your business. How did you get started?”

She lifts her glass of sparkling water. “I guess I can thank my brother for that. When I used to get dragged to his games, I started studying the stats. I was a big math nerd in school.”

“Ha. A nerd. I don’t see that.”