Inside, she went upstairs and found room 311. There was a small window in the door, through which she could see Marin at the front of the room, looking professional as hell as she taught her students. Charlotte slipped through the door and took an empty seat in the back row. It was a small classroom, though, and Marin looked right at her, flashing a warm smile that set Charlotte’s heart racing all over again.
“As we dig deeper into the relationship between causation and correlation, let’s look at a real-world example. A recent study found a correlation between the number of hours a student spends on social media and their academic grades.” She clicked a button on her laptop, and a graph appeared on the screen beside her.
“But does spending more time online distract students from their studies, resulting in lower grades, or do students who are already struggling academically turn to social media as a form of escape? This is where causation comes into play, and it’s crucial when analyzing data not to jump to conclusions.” Marin looked so confident up there, so natural and in command. Her entire demeanor was different from that of the casual woman Charlotte had known. She sounded smart, competent. Who knew statistics could be sexy?
“Confirmation bias can cause you to interpret the results in a way that reinforces your existing beliefs. In my previous example, it would be all too easy for parents to see those results and conclude that they need to limit their child’s time on social media to improve their grades rather than looking deeper at the underlying reasons that the student is struggling.
“Now consider a different scenario.” She stared right at Charlotte, then winked. “How many of you read your horoscope at least once a week?”
Charlotte raised her hand. Probably a third of the class also had a hand in the air.
“Who wants to tell me how confirmation bias could affect how you interpret the contents of your horoscope?” Marin swept her gaze around the room, nodding at a young woman in the front row.
“We’re more likely to notice the parts of the horoscope that apply to us and disregard the rest,” she said.
“Exactly.” Marin gave her an approving look. Meanwhile, Charlotte’s stomach had tightened because she wasn’t sure where Marin was going with this. Was she taking a dig at the way they’d met?
“Aww, come on, Professor E. Don’t hate on horoscopes,” another student called out, voicing Charlotte’s concern.
Marin chuckled. “I’m not hating on them. In fact, if I’ve learned anything over the last few years, it’s this: Not everything can be explained by statistical models, even when you account for the margin of error. Sometimes, you have to trust your instincts and believe in the unbelievable.”
Chapter Thirteen
Marin came to the campus on Tuesday afternoons for office hours. Her schedule this semester was sporadic and poorly spaced, but she hoped to plan things better next year, and in the meantime, it did allow her to be home more often with Ember.
Footsteps approached Marin’s office, and she looked up in anticipation, but the student kept walking right past her door. So far, not many students had come to see her during office hours, which was disappointing. It gave her mind too much time to wander, and her thoughts were a dangerous place these days. If she wasn’t obsessing about Charlotte, she was spiraling about her upcoming date with Laura.
She spent a half hour responding to emails before a hesitant knock made her look up from her laptop. Brianna from the Pride Coalition stood in the doorway, which was a surprise, but Marin made sure that didn’t show on her face. While office hours were primarily for students from her classes, she’d extended an open invitation to the members of the Pride Coalition.
Since that first meeting, Marin had been making an extra effort with Brianna, often saying hi after meetings. The girl never said much, but Marin kept trying. Her gut said Brianna needed someone to talk to, and now it seemed her gut had been correct.
“Brianna,” she said with a smile. “It’s nice to see you.”
Brianna shifted uncomfortably in the doorway. “Hi, Professor Easterly. I hope it’s okay that I’m here?”
“Of course. Come on in and have a seat. Close the door if you’d like, totally up to you.” Usually Marin preferred to keep it open, but it seemed prudent to offer Brianna the option of privacy if she’d come to discuss something personal.
Brianna closed the door, then stood there, twisting her hands in front of herself. She looked like she might bolt at the slightest provocation.
“Can you believe we’re expecting more snow tomorrow?” Marin said, hoping to help put her at ease with a neutral topic. “I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for spring.”
“Yeah. I, um, I like skiing, but I’m ready for warm weather. Vermont winters can get really long.” Brianna came forward hesitantly and sat in one of the guest chairs.
“Did you grow up here?”
“No, I’m from Connecticut. We get snow there, too, but not as much as Vermont.”
“I’m from Manhattan,” Marin said. “It’s the same there ... plenty of snow, but not nearly as much as we get here.”
Brianna looked down at her lap. She was shaking, Marin noticed, and her stomach tightened in anticipation of whatever the girl was here to tell her.
“Take your time,” Marin told her gently. “Whatever’s on your mind, I promise to be a judgment-free listener, and I’ll do my best to help.”
“You mentioned that you’d come out recently?” Brianna looked up at her with wide, fearful eyes. “I was wondering if you have anyadvice? Because I ... I need to do that. I need to tell my parents I’m gay, and I’m so scared.”
Marin inhaled. Oh wow. This was a big deal. She hadn’t anticipated providing this kind of guidance quite so soon. “It’s a big step. To be honest, I’m still in the process of coming out to my family.” Marin wasn’t sure how much to share with a student, but Brianna still seemed skittish. More than that, she lookedterrified, so maybe a little honesty from Marin would help. “I’m planning to come out to my brother this weekend, and I’m scared too.”
Brianna leaned forward in her seat. “Really?”
