‘They already have construction workers building lava walls to try and protect the town if the worst happens,’ said Bjarkey. ‘This data gives them a timeline that we didn’t have before.’
‘If it’s right,’ said Iris.
‘I think it is,’ Bjarkey said, her eyes shining. ‘I think we should go out to Hraunvik today. We could take the two extra seismometers and site them and we can see if anything has changed since our last visit. If we are right about the timing, we should be seeing shifts in the surface by now.’
‘Today? That’s great.’ Iris loved working with Bjarkey. It was a fantastic mixture of crunching the data, which Iris loved, andthe fun of actually going out to see where the data was coming from. And if they were right, seeing the changes in reality would give extra weight to Iris’s report.
‘Okay. Do you have everything with you, or shall we call at your hotel on the way?’
‘I have my stuff with me.’
‘Let’s go, then!’
It wasn’t as cold today, but the skies were granite grey and there was a constant drizzle in the air. As they drove towards Hraunvik, the landscape looked less enticing in the gloom, and even in the short time since her first visit with Siggi, Iris could see the snow had receded and there was more of the black lava rock landscape that had peeked out from beneath the snow. It wasn’t spring as it would look in England, but it was a start.
They drove straight to Hraunvik, the road looking familiar this time, and parked on the outskirts of the town.
‘Oh, look.’ Bjarkey pointed at the road. They hadn’t walked far. There was a crack in the road’s surface. It wasn’t big, but it definitely hadn’t been there before.
‘That’s what we were expecting.’ The data that they’d put together had indicated that there would be physical evidence of a volcanic event and this was it. Iris was thrilled that her method had helped to predict this, and now it had been proven. Yet seeing the beginning of what could be terrible for the people of the town was sobering.
‘Yes, it’s fantastic for us,’ Bjarkey said. ‘But it means that we need to notify the civil authorities. I am not sure they were expecting this kind of timeline. They will need to bring the evacuation plans forward.’
That brought it home to Iris. If the crack in the road wasn’t enough, that there were evacuation plans said everything. ‘It’s terrible. These people are going to lose their homes.’
‘They may not. But it is a possibility.’
Bjarkey took some photos of the road and they measured the crack to use as a baseline in the days and weeks to come.
As they carried on into the centre of the town, they saw further evidence of movement. Similar cracks in the ground, mostly visible on the roads since the surface was normally smooth. But then they went to check Iris’s seismometer and came across more cracks. This time the crack ran from the street, through the garden where her equipment was and from what they could see, underneath the house.
‘Oh my god,’ Iris said. ‘We should warn them.’
‘They will know,’ said Bjarkey, gently. ‘And they know what it means.’
Iris couldn’t imagine living somewhere so precarious. She’d never been anywhere before where people lived so close to a volcanic event she was monitoring. The joy that she normally felt when something was about to happen had been lost to a feeling of dread for these people.
Again, they took photos and measurements of what they could see. They both knew that the house would be compromised within the next day or so. And that this house wouldn’t be the only one. If Iris’s equipment hadn’t been in the garden, they wouldn’t have noticed that particular fissure, so it was likely there were others, just as dramatic, that they’d missed.
Using the same technique that Iris had used when she’d first arrived to choose the site of her original seismometer, they chose two new sites. One north of the town and one further to the south. They could see that the fissures would most likely occur on a loose north-south line, so this extra monitoring would help to give them better data about how that might play out.
Iris was quiet on the drive home, contemplating what they’d seen and finding it difficult to feel happy that her theory had finally begun to be proved. Because at what cost?
Her phone rang. It was Jay.
‘I was expecting your report today,’ he said, with no preamble.
‘I’ve been out in the field. There’s firm evidence that the theory is correct. We estimate it’ll be less than a week until the activity emerges. I’d really like to stay until it does.’
‘Not possible.’
Iris took a breath, knowing that she needed to stay calm to make a persuasive argument for staying. ‘But it’d be better for the report if we can show that the culmination in activity matches what we predicted.’
‘You don’t need to be there for that. The IMO can send the information on.’
‘But —’
‘Iris. I expect the report tonight and you back in the UK on Wednesday.’
